Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 21.503015 22.682474 23.920942 25.323315 26.873360 28.541398 30.481791
2026-01-11 19.935834 21.593322 23.417099 25.591166 28.137317 31.057301 34.708379
2026-01-18 18.804453 20.723184 22.901102 25.590859 28.874200 32.823193 38.049957
2026-01-25 17.763207 19.822406 22.213650 25.246460 29.069050 33.844938 40.472907
2026-02-01 16.892735 19.040204 21.580109 24.872520 29.135363 34.638982 42.607125
2026-02-08 16.115550 18.311970 20.949009 24.429835 29.040330 35.164487 44.372920
2026-02-15 15.575478 17.836492 20.590708 24.291365 29.305540 36.161839 46.889096
2026-02-22 15.321313 17.695066 20.633053 24.659658 30.258008 38.175793 51.170665
2026-03-01 14.833196 17.231915 20.233797 24.405698 30.313974 38.878657 53.451607
2026-03-08 14.212482 16.573546 19.549620 23.723648 29.707723 38.527686 53.913269
2026-03-15 13.802763 16.170375 19.181082 23.451606 29.668163 39.025423 55.881809
2026-03-22 13.679879 16.131717 19.288821 23.840287 30.614949 41.136162 61.047741
2026-03-29 13.454563 15.961421 19.226805 24.006125 31.271497 42.901882 66.031988
2026-04-05 13.268364 15.835850 19.219480 24.249226 32.064977 44.986936 72.137795
2026-04-12 13.012604 15.605858 19.055707 24.248953 32.466358 46.427694 77.211408
2026-04-19 12.669641 15.245802 18.695501 23.934895 32.333187 46.886841 80.156370
2026-04-26 12.338378 14.891297 18.329777 23.593584 32.129464 47.190168 82.799556
2026-05-03 12.005332 14.524857 17.934695 23.189100 31.793021 47.207446 84.736781
2026-05-10 11.777218 14.296124 17.727396 23.062484 31.916224 48.119705 89.260263
2026-05-17 11.702817 14.276779 17.817725 23.399149 32.855019 50.750819 99.425699
2026-05-24 11.463346 14.020192 17.555337 23.167033 32.777149 51.291939 103.603631
2026-05-31 11.119630 13.609881 17.058009 22.542889 31.965667 50.215863 102.376860
2026-06-07 10.898576 13.367502 16.800472 22.293634 31.817146 50.547634 105.929064